The future of the UK’s trading relationship with the EU27 and the rest of world is the number one item on the boardroom agenda of businesses across the UK, whether they are manufacturers or service providers, such as financial institutions.

In terms of the trading relationship with Europe, there appears to be consensus within the cabinet that there should be a two to three year transition period after March 2019 in order to smooth the path to the new trading agreement that the Government is trying to negotiate with Brussels, whatever form that might ultimately take. However, the devil is in the detail. In its recently proposed paper on customs arrangements, the Government has proposed either a temporary customs union between the UK Europe or a ‘highly streamlined arrangement’ during the transition. In the longer term the Government is suggesting a ‘customs partnership’. Critics have been quick to point out the difficulties associated with all these options The financial services community has also called for ‘urgent talks’ for a broader transitional arrangement to include services, which account for the bulk of UK exports.

Turning to developing new trading relationships with the rest of the world, the Government hopes that it can agree with the European Commission that it can start this process during the transitional period, but it is not certain that they will agree. In any event, the UK will probably have to focus its initial efforts on replicating the dozens of arrangements that the EU already has with third countries, before turning its attention to the many new opportunities that exist around the world.

In this fog of uncertainty, companies’ contingency planning must take account of a bewildering array of possible future scenarios. However, the only rational basis for contingency planning is to assume the worst option, a hard BREXIT, and to build in the flexibility to respond to better outcomes if they materialise. To do the latter, however, companies need not only to have a good understanding of the other possible outcomes, but also to have a sense of their probability and an appreciation of the factors that affect that probability.

To assist companies with their planning and decision-making, City & Financial are organising ‘The Post-Brexit UK Trade Policy Summit’ on 8th November in London. An impressive array of top experts will guide delegates through the key issues, including:

• Structuring BREXIT to maximise trade benefits and enhance the UK’s participation in the global value chain;
• Transition: What will a transitional agreement for the UK look like?
• How will the customs arrangements work through the transition period and beyond?
• What sort of comprehensive transition arrangements are possible for services? 
• Towards an independent UK trade policy that works for business - a new EU partnership: what are the alternatives to single market membership?  
• Implications “Hard Brexit” for trade in (a) goods and (b) services and what are the challenges and applicable WTO rules?
• The Government’s vision of a Global Britain: making allies and forging new trade relationships with other developed and developing countries
• Making a success of Brexit: what business needs to make it work

The day has been structured so that the overarching themes are discussed in plenary sessions in the morning, while delegates will split into two workstreams in the afternoon covering the key issues for trade in goods and services, respectively.

*applies to a company or group with less than 50 employees